Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Spencer L James ; Chris D Castle ; Zachary V Dingels ; Jack T Fox ; Erin B Hamilton ; Zichen Liu ; Nicholas LS Roberts ; Dillon O Sylte ; Gregory J Bertolacci ; Matthew Cunningham ; +528 more... Nathaniel J Henry ; Kate E LeGrand

; Ahmed Abdelalim ; Ibrahim Abdollahpour ; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader ; Aidin Abedi ; Kedir Hussein Abegaz ; Akine Eshete Abosetugn ; Abdelrahman I Abushouk ; Oladimeji M Adebayo ; Jose C Adsuar ; Shailesh M Advani ; Marcela Agudelo-Botero ; Tauseef Ahmad ; Muktar Beshir Ahmed ; Rushdia Ahmed ; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour ; Fares Alahdab ; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi ; Niguse Meles Alema ; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu ; Suliman A Alghnam ; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali ; Saqib Ali ; Cyrus Alinia ; Vahid Alipour ; Syed Mohamed Aljunid ; Amir Almasi-Hashiani ; Nihad A Almasri ; Khalid Altirkawi ; Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer ; Catalina Liliana Andrei ; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam ; Carl Abelardo T Antonio ; Davood Anvari ; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah ; Jalal Arabloo ; Morteza Arab-Zozani ; Zohreh Arefi ; Olatunde Aremu ; Filippo Ariani ; Amit Arora ; Malke Asaad ; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla ; Getinet Ayano ; Martin Amogre Ayanore ; Ghasem Azarian ; Alaa Badawi ; Ashish D Badiye ; Atif Amin Baig ; Mohan Bairwa ; Ahad Bakhtiari ; Arun Balachandran ; Maciej Banach ; Srikanta K Banerjee ; Palash Chandra Banik ; Amrit Banstola ; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo ; Till Winfried Bärnighausen ; Akbar Barzegar ; Mohsen Bayati ; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi ; Neeraj Bedi ; Masoud Behzadifar ; Habte Belete ; Derrick A Bennett ; Isabela M Bensenor ; Kidanemaryam Berhe ; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula ; Pankaj Bhardwaj ; Anusha Ganapati Bhat ; Krittika Bhattacharyya ; Zulfiqar A Bhutta ; Sadia Bibi ; Ali Bijani ; Archith Boloor ; Guilherme Borges ; Rohan Borschmann ; Antonio Maria Borzì ; Soufiane Boufous ; Dejana Braithwaite ; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko ; Traolach Brugha ; Shyam S Budhathoki ; Josip Car ; Rosario Cárdenas ; Félix Carvalho ; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia ; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela ; Giulio Castelpietra ; Ferrán Catalá-López ; Ester Cerin ; Joht S Chandan ; Jens Robert Chapman ; Vijay Kumar Chattu ; Soosanna Kumary Chattu ; Irini Chatziralli ; Neha Chaudhary ; Daniel Youngwhan Cho ; Jee-Young J Choi ; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury ; Devasahayam J Christopher ; Dinh-Toi Chu ; Flavia M Cicuttini ; João M Coelho ; Vera M Costa ; Saad MA Dahlawi ; Ahmad Daryani ; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes ; Diego De Leo ; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke ; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz ; Desalegn Getnet Demsie ; Kebede Deribe ; Rupak Desai ; Mostafa Dianati Nasab ; Diana Dias da Silva ; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani ; Hoa Thi Do ; Kerrie E Doyle ; Tim Robert Driscoll ; Eleonora Dubljanin ; Bereket Duko Adema ; Arielle Wilder Eagan ; Demelash Abewa Elemineh ; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary ; Ziad El-Khatib ; Christian Lycke Ellingsen ; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki ; Sharareh Eskandarieh ; Oghenowede Eyawo ; Pawan Sirwan Faris ; Andre Faro ; Farshad Farzadfar ; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad ; Eduarda Fernandes ; Pietro Ferrara ; Florian Fischer ; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan ; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov ; Masoud Foroutan ; Joel Msafiri Francis ; Richard Charles Franklin ; Takeshi Fukumoto ; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam ; Hadush Gebremariam ; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin ; Leake G Gebremeskel ; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel ; Berhe Gebremichael ; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw ; Birhanu Geta ; Agegnehu Bante Getenet ; Mansour Ghafourifard ; Farhad Ghamari ; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh ; Asadollah Gholamian ; Syed Amir Gilani ; Tiffany K Gill ; Amir Hossein Goudarzian ; Alessandra C Goulart ; Ayman Grada ; Michal Grivna ; Rafael Alves Guimarães ; Yuming Guo ; Gaurav Gupta ; Juanita A Haagsma ; Brian James Hall ; Randah R Hamadeh ; Samer Hamidi ; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso ; Josep Maria Haro ; Amir Hasanzadeh ; Shoaib Hassan ; Soheil Hassanipour ; Hadi Hassankhani ; Hamid Yimam Hassen ; Rasmus Havmoeller ; Delia Hendrie ; Fatemeh Heydarpour ; Martha Híjar ; Hung Chak Ho ; Chi Linh Hoang ; Michael K Hole ; Ramesh Holla ; Naznin Hossain ; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh ; Sorin Hostiuc ; Guoqing Hu ; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi ; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj ; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani ; M Mofizul Islam ; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam ; Rebecca Q Ivers ; Mohammad Ali Jahani ; Mihajlo Jakovljevic ; Farzad Jalilian ; Sudha Jayaraman ; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke ; Ravi Prakash Jha ; Yetunde O John-Akinola ; Jost B Jonas ; Kelly M Jones ; Nitin Joseph ; Farahnaz Joukar ; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak ; Suresh Banayya Jungari ; Mikk Jürisson ; Ali Kabir ; Amaha Kahsay ; Leila R Kalankesh ; Rohollah Kalhor ; Teshome Abegaz Kamil ; Tanuj Kanchan ; Neeti Kapoor ; Manoochehr Karami ; Amir Kasaeian ; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye ; Taras Kavetskyy ; Gbenga A Kayode ; Peter Njenga Keiyoro ; Abraham Getachew Kelbore ; Yousef Saleh Khader ; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie ; Nauman Khalid ; Ibrahim A Khalil ; Rovshan Khalilov ; Maseer Khan ; Ejaz Ahmad Khan ; Junaid Khan ; Tripti Khanna ; Salman Khazaei ; Habibolah Khazaie ; Roba Khundkar ; Daniel N Kiirithio ; Young-Eun Kim ; Yun Jin Kim ; Daniel Kim ; Sezer Kisa ; Adnan Kisa ; Hamidreza Komaki ; Shivakumar KM Kondlahalli ; Ali Koolivand ; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov ; Ai Koyanagi ; Moritz UG Kraemer ; Kewal Krishan ; Barthelemy Kuate Defo ; Burcu Kucuk Bicer ; Nuworza Kugbey ; Nithin Kumar ; Manasi Kumar ; Vivek Kumar ; Narinder Kumar ; Girikumar Kumaresh ; Faris Hasan Lami ; Van C Lansingh ; Savita Lasrado ; Arman Latifi ; Paolo Lauriola ; Carlo La Vecchia ; Janet L Leasher ; Shaun Wen Huey Lee ; Shanshan Li ; Xuefeng Liu ; Alan D Lopez ; Paulo A Lotufo ; Ronan A Lyons ; Daiane Borges Machado ; Mohammed Madadin ; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek ; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra ; Marek Majdan ; Azeem Majeed ; Venkatesh Maled ; Deborah Carvalho Malta ; Navid Manafi ; Amir Manafi ; Ana-Laura Manda ; Narayana Manjunatha ; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei ; Mohammad Ali Mansournia ; Joemer C Maravilla ; Amanda J Mason-Jones ; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi ; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg ; Pallab K Maulik ; Man Mohan Mehndiratta ; Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik ; Peter TN Memiah ; Walter Mendoza ; Ritesh G Menezes ; Melkamu Merid Mengesha ; Tuomo J Meretoja ; Atte Meretoja ; Hayimro Edemealem Merie ; Tomislav Mestrovic ; Bartosz Miazgowski ; Tomasz Miazgowski ; Ted R Miller ; GK Mini ; Andreea Mirica ; Erkin M Mirrakhimov ; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh ; Prasanna Mithra ; Babak Moazen ; Masoud Moghadaszadeh ; Efat Mohamadi ; Yousef Mohammad ; Aso Mohammad Darwesh ; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani ; Reza Mohammadpourhodki ; Shafiu Mohammed ; Jemal Abdu Mohammed ; Farnam Mohebi ; Mohammad A Mohseni Bandpei ; Mariam Molokhia ; Lorenzo Monasta ; Yoshan Moodley ; Masoud Moradi ; Ghobad Moradi ; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh ; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh ; Lidia Morawska ; Ilais Moreno Velásquez ; Shane Douglas Morrison ; Tilahun Belete Mossie ; Atalay Goshu Muluneh ; Kamarul Imran Musa ; Ghulam Mustafa ; Mehdi Naderi ; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan ; Gurudatta Naik ; Mukhammad David Naimzada ; Farid Najafi ; Vinay Nangia ; Bruno Ramos Nascimento ; Morteza Naserbakht ; Vinod Nayak ; Javad Nazari ; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe ; Ionut Negoi ; Josephine W Ngunjiri ; Trang Huyen Nguyen ; Cuong Tat Nguyen ; Diep Ngoc Nguyen ; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen ; Rajan Nikbakhsh ; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum ; Chukwudi A Nnaji ; Richard Ofori-Asenso ; Felix Akpojene Ogbo ; Onome Bright Oghenetega ; In-Hwan Oh ; Andrew T Olagunju ; Tinuke O Olagunju ; Ahmed Omar Bali ; Obinna E Onwujekwe ; Heather M Orpana ; Erika Ota ; Nikita Otstavnov ; Stanislav S Otstavnov ; Mahesh P A ; Jagadish Rao Padubidri ; Smita Pakhale ; Keyvan Pakshir ; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas ; Eun-Kee Park ; Sangram Kishor Patel ; Ashish Pathak ; Sanghamitra Pati ; Kebreab Paulos ; Amy E Peden ; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito ; Jeevan Pereira ; Michael R Phillips ; Roman V Polibin ; Suzanne Polinder ; Farshad Pourmalek ; Akram Pourshams ; Hossein Poustchi ; Swayam Prakash ; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi ; Parul Puri ; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed ; Navid Rabiee ; Mohammad Rabiee ; Amir Radfar ; Anwar Rafay ; Ata Rafiee ; Alireza Rafiei ; Fakher Rahim ; Siavash Rahimi ; Muhammad Aziz Rahman ; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati ; Fatemeh Rajati ; Ivo Rakovac ; Sowmya J Rao ; Vahid Rashedi ; Prateek Rastogi ; Priya Rathi ; Salman Rawaf ; Lal Rawal ; Reza Rawassizadeh ; Vishnu Renjith ; Serge Resnikoff ; Aziz Rezapour ; Ana Isabel Ribeiro ; Jennifer Rickard ; Carlos Miguel Rios González ; Leonardo Roever ; Luca Ronfani ; Gholamreza Roshandel ; Basema Saddik ; Hamid Safarpour ; Mahdi Safdarian ; S Mohammad Sajadi ; Payman Salamati ; Marwa R Rashad Salem ; Hosni Salem ; Inbal Salz ; Abdallah M Samy ; Juan Sanabria ; Lidia Sanchez Riera ; Milena M Santric Milicevic ; Abdur Razzaque Sarker ; Arash Sarveazad ; Brijesh Sathian ; Monika Sawhney ; Mehdi Sayyah ; David C Schwebel ; Soraya Seedat ; Subramanian Senthilkumaran ; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi ; Feng Sha ; Faramarz Shaahmadi ; Saeed Shahabi ; Masood Ali Shaikh ; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand ; Aziz Sheikh ; Mika Shigematsu ; Jae Il Shin ; Rahman Shiri ; Soraya Siabani ; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir ; Jasvinder A Singh ; Pankaj Kumar Singh ; Dhirendra Narain Sinha ; Amin Soheili ; Joan B Soriano ; Muluken Bekele Sorrie ; Ireneous N Soyiri ; Mark A Stokes ; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan ; Bryan L Sykes ; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos ; Karen M Tabb ; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele ; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera ; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi ; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu ; Ayenew Kassie Tesema Tesema ; Berhe Etsay Tesfay ; Rekha Thapar ; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova ; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye ; Hamid Reza Tohidinik ; Roman Topor-Madry ; Khanh Bao Tran ; Bach Xuan Tran ; Jaya Prasad Tripathy ; Alexander C Tsai ; Aristidis Tsatsakis ; Lorainne Tudor Car ; Irfan Ullah ; Saif Ullah ; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan ; Era Upadhyay ; Olalekan A Uthman ; Pascual R Valdez ; Tommi Juhani Vasankari ; Yousef Veisani ; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian ; Francesco S Violante ; Vasily Vlassov ; Yasir Waheed ; Yuan-Pang Wang ; Taweewat Wiangkham ; Haileab Fekadu Wolde ; Dawit Habte Woldeyes ; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh ; Adam Belay Wondmieneh ; Ai-Min Wu ; Grant MA Wyper ; Rajaram Yadav ; Ali Yadollahpour ; Yuichiro Yano ; Sanni Yaya ; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi ; Pengpeng Ye ; Paul Yip ; Engida Yisma ; Naohiro Yonemoto ; Seok-Jun Yoon ; Yoosik Youm ; Mustafa Z Younis ; Zabihollah Yousefi ; Chuanhua Yu ; Yong Yu ; Telma Zahirian Moghadam ; Zoubida Zaidi ; Sojib Bin Zaman ; Mohammad Zamani ; Hamed Zandian ; Fatemeh Zarei ; Zhi-Jiang Zhang ; Yunquan Zhang ; Arash Ziapour ; Sanjay Zodpey ; Rakhi Dandona ; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne ; Simon I Hay ; Ali H Mokdad ; David M Pigott ; Robert C Reiner ; Theo Vos ; (2020) Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention, 26 (Supp 1). i125-i153. ISSN 1353-8047 DOI: 10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043531

Copy

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.