Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.

John Ojal ; Samuel PC Brand

; Vincent Were ; Emelda A Okiro

; Ivy K Kombe ; Caroline Mburu

; Rabia Aziza ; Morris Ogero

; Ambrose Agweyu

; George M Warimwe

; +16 more... Sophie Uyoga

; Ifedayo MO Adetifa

; J Anthony G Scott

; Edward Otieno

; Lynette I Ochola-Oyier ; Charles N Agoti

; Kadondi Kasera ; Patrick Amoth ; Mercy Mwangangi ; Rashid Aman ; Wangari Ng'ang'a ; Benjamin Tsofa

; Philip Bejon

; Edwine Barasa ; Matt J Keeling

; D James Nokes

; (2022) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research, 6. 127-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3

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Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.