Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data.

Ojal, J; Brand, SP

; Were, V; Okiro, EA

; Kombe, IK; Mburu, C

; Aziza, R; Ogero, M

; Agweyu, A

; Warimwe, GM

; +16 more...Uyoga, S

; Adetifa, IM

; Scott, JAG

; Otieno, E

; Ochola-Oyier, LI; Agoti, CN

; Kasera, K; Amoth, P; Mwangangi, M; Aman, R; Ng'ang'a, W; Tsofa, B

; Bejon, P

; Barasa, E; Keeling, MJ

; Nokes, DJ

and (2022) Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data. Wellcome Open Research, 6. 127-. ISSN 2398-502X DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3

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Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.