COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
; Ojal, John; Aziza, Rabia; Were, Vincent; Okiro, Emelda A; Kombe, Ivy K; Mburu, Caroline; Ogero, Morris; Agweyu, Ambrose; Warimwe, George M; +23 more...Nyagwange, James; Karanja, Henry; Gitonga, John N; Mugo, Daisy; Uyoga, Sophie; Adetifa, Ifedayo MO; Scott, J Anthony G; Otieno, Edward; Murunga, Nickson; Otiende, Mark; Ochola-Oyier, Lynette I; Agoti, Charles N; Githinji, George; Kasera, Kadondi; Amoth, Patrick; Mwangangi, Mercy; Aman, Rashid; Ng'ang'a, Wangari; Tsofa, Benjamin; Bejon, Philip; Keeling, Matt J; Nokes, D James; and Barasa, Edwine
(2021)
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
Science (New York, N.Y.), 374 (6570).
pp. 989-994.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0414
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
-
picture_as_pdf - COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.pdf
-
subject - Published Version
-
- Available under Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0