COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
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John
Ojal
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Rabia
Aziza
;
Vincent
Were
;
Emelda A
Okiro
;
Ivy K
Kombe
;
Caroline
Mburu
;
Morris
Ogero
;
Ambrose
Agweyu
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George M
Warimwe
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+23 more...
James
Nyagwange
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Henry
Karanja
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John N
Gitonga
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Daisy
Mugo
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Sophie
Uyoga
;
Ifedayo MO
Adetifa
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J Anthony G
Scott
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Edward
Otieno
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Nickson
Murunga
;
Mark
Otiende
;
Lynette I
Ochola-Oyier
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Charles N
Agoti
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George
Githinji
;
Kadondi
Kasera
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Patrick
Amoth
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Mercy
Mwangangi
;
Rashid
Aman
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Wangari
Ng'ang'a
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Benjamin
Tsofa
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Philip
Bejon
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Matt J
Keeling
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D James
Nokes
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Edwine
Barasa
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(2021)
COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya.
Science (New York, N.Y.), 374 (6570).
pp. 989-994.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0414
Policy decisions on COVID-19 interventions should be informed by a local, regional and national understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. Epidemic waves may result when restrictions are lifted or poorly adhered to, variants with new phenotypic properties successfully invade, or infection spreads to susceptible subpopulations. Three COVID-19 epidemic waves have been observed in Kenya. Using a mechanistic mathematical model, we explain the first two distinct waves by differences in contact rates in high and low social-economic groups, and the third wave by the introduction of higher-transmissibility variants. Reopening schools led to a minor increase in transmission between the second and third waves. Socioeconomic and urban–rural population structure are critical determinants of viral transmission in Kenya.
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