Onozuka, Daisuke; Tanoue, Yuta; Nomura, Shuhei; Kawashima, Takayuki; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Eguchi, Akifumi; Ng, Chris Fook Sheng; Matsuura, Kentaro; Shi, Shoi; Makiyama, Koji; +15 more... Uryu, Shinya; Kawamura, Yumi; Takayanagi, Shinichi; Gilmour, Stuart; Hayashi, Takehiko I; Miyata, Hiroaki; Sera, Francesco; Sunagawa, Tomimasa; Takahashi, Takuri; Tsuchihashi, Yuuki; Kobayashi, Yusuke; Arima, Yuzo; Kanou, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Motoi; Hashizume, Masahiro; (2021) Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design. International journal of epidemiology, 51 (1). pp. 75-84. ISSN 0300-5771 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyab216
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. METHODS: Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. RESULTS: In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Public Health, Environments and Society |
Research Centre | Covid-19 Research |
PubMed ID | 34718594 |
Elements ID | 167150 |