The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios: Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen, China

Yi-Ling He ; Shi-Zhou Deng ; Hung Chak Ho ORCID logo ; Hui-Bin Wang ; Yang Chen ; Shakoor Hajat ORCID logo ; Chao Ren ; Bai-Quan Zhou ; Jian Cheng ; Wenbiao Hu ; +2 more... Wen-Jun Ma ; Cun-Rui Huang ; (2021) The half-degree matters for heat-related health impacts under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming scenarios: Evidence from ambulance data in Shenzhen, China. Advances in Climate Change Research, 12 (5). pp. 628-637. ISSN 1674-9278 DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.001
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The Paris Agreement has prompted much interest in the societal and health impacts of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Previous assessments of differential impacts of two targets indicate that 1.5 °C warming target would substantially reduce the impact on human health compared to 2 °C, but they mainly focused on the magnitude of temperature changes under future climate change scenarios without any consideration of greater frequency of cumulative heat exposures within a day. Here we quantified the health risks of compound daytime and nighttime hot extremes using morbidity data in a megacity of China, and also identified the time-period of heat exposure with higher risks. Then we projected future morbidity burden attributable to compound hot extremes due to the half-degree warming. We estimated that the 2 °C warming scenario by 2100 as opposed to 1.5 °C would increase annual heat-related ambulance dispatches by 31% in Shenzhen city. Substantial additional impacts were associated with occurrence of consecutive hot days and nights, with ambulance dispatches increased by 82%. Our results suggested that compound hot extremes should be considered in assessment of heat-related health impacts, particularly in the context of climate change. Minimizing the warming of climate in a more ambitious target can significantly reduce the health damage.


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