Dickens, Borame L; Koo, Joel R; Lim, Jue Tao; Park, Minah; Quaye, Sharon; Sun, Haoyang; Sun, Yinxiaohe; Pung, Rachael; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Chai, Louis Yi Ann; +2 more... Lee, Vernon J; Cook, Alex R; (2020) Modelling lockdown and exit strategies for COVID-19 in Singapore. The Lancet regional health - Western Pacific, 1. 100004-. ISSN 2666-6065 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100004
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: With at least 94 countries undergoing or exiting lockdowns for contact suppression to control the COVID-19 outbreak, sustainable and public health-driven exit strategies are required. Here we explore the impact of lockdown and exit strategies in Singapore for immediate planning. METHODS: We use an agent-based model to examine the impacts of epidemic control over 480 days. A limited control baseline of case isolation and household member quarantining is used. We measure the impact of lockdown duration and start date on final infection attack sizes. We then apply a 3-month gradual exit strategy, immediately re-opening schools and easing workplace distancing measures, and compare this to long-term social distancing measures. FINDINGS: At baseline, we estimated 815 400 total infections (21.6% of the population). Early lockdown at 5 weeks with no exit strategy averted 18 500 (2.27% of baseline averted), 21 300 (2.61%) and 22 400 (2.75%) infections for 6, 8 and 9-week lockdown durations. Using the exit strategy averted a corresponding 114 700, 121 700 and 126 000 total cases, representing 12.07-13.06% of the total epidemic size under baseline. This diminishes to 9 900-11 300 for a late 8-week start time. Long-term social distancing at 6 and 8-week durations are viable but less effective. INTERPRETATION: Gradual release exit strategies are critical to maintain epidemic suppression under a new normal. We present final infection attack sizes assuming the ongoing importation of cases, which require preparation for a potential second epidemic wave due to ongoing epidemics elsewhere. FUNDING: Singapore Ministry of Health, Singapore Population Health Improvement Centre.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department |
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control |
Research Centre | Covid-19 Research |
PubMed ID | 34173590 |
Elements ID | 159070 |
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Filename: Dickens_etal_2020_Modelling-lockdown-and-exit-strategies.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0
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