Silhol, Romain; Geidelberg, Lily; Mitchell, Kate M; Mishra, Sharmistha; Dimitrov, Dobromir; Bowring, Anna; Béhanzin, Luc; Guédou, Fernand; Diabaté, Souleymane; Schwartz, Sheree; +11 more... Billong, Serge C; Njindam, Iliassou Mfochive; Levitt, Daniel; Mukandavire, Christinah; Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Rönn, Minttu M; Dalal, Shona; Vickerman, Peter; Baral, Stefan; Alary, Michel; Boily, Marie-Claude; (2021) Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cities of Cameroon and Benin. Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999), 87 (3). pp. 899-911. ISSN 1525-4135 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0000000000002663
Permanent Identifier
Use this Digital Object Identifier when citing or linking to this resource.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men, and overall. SETTING: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). METHODS: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city population-specific and risk population-specific demographic/behavioral/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared with a scenario without COVID-19. RESULTS: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31%, and 23% among men who have sex with men, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé, respectively, and 69%, 49%, and 23% among FSW, clients, and overall, respectively, in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in condom use after COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritized to minimize short-term excess HIV-related deaths.
Item Type | Article |
---|---|
Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) |
Research Centre | Covid-19 Research |
PubMed ID | 33657058 |
Elements ID | 157537 |
Download
Filename: Assessing the Potential Impact of Disruptions Due to COVID-19 on HIV Among Key and Lower-Risk Populations in the Largest Cit.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0
Download