Estimating the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in England, using weekly contact survey data
Abstract
Background
Schools have been closed in England since the 4th of January 2021 as part of the national restrictions to curb transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The UK Government plans to reopen schools on the 8th of March. Although there is evidence of lower individual-level transmission risk amongst children compared to adults, the combined effects of this with increased contact rates in school settings are not clear.
Methods
We measured social contacts when schools were both open or closed, amongst other restrictions. We combined these data with estimates of the susceptibility and infectiousness of children compared with adults to estimate the impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number.
Results
Our results suggest that reopening all schools could increase R from an assumed baseline of 0.8 to between 1.0 and 1.5, or to between 0.9 and 1.2 reopening primary or secondary schools alone.
Conclusion
Our results suggest that reopening schools is likely to halt the fall in cases observed in recent months and risks returning to rising infections, but these estimates rely heavily on the current estimates or reproduction number and the current validity of the susceptibility and infectiousness profiles we use.
Item Type | Article |
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Elements ID | 157984 |
Date Deposited | 30 Jul 2021 15:58 |
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- Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & International Health (2023-)
- Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics (2023-)