Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Attack Rates and Antibody Dynamics in Children Using Cross-Sectional Serological Data.
Minter, Amanda;
Hoschler, Katja;
Jagne, Ya Jankey;
Sallah, Hadijatou;
Armitage, Edwin;
Lindsey, Benjamin;
Hay, James A;
Riley, Steven;
de Silva, Thushan I;
Kucharski, Adam J;
(2020)
Estimation of Seasonal Influenza Attack Rates and Antibody Dynamics in Children Using Cross-Sectional Serological Data.
The Journal of infectious diseases, 225 (10).
pp. 1750-1754.
ISSN 0022-1899
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa338
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Directly measuring evidence of influenza infections is difficult, especially in low-surveillance settings such as sub-Saharan Africa. Using a Bayesian model, we estimated unobserved infection times and underlying antibody responses to influenza A/H3N2, using cross-sectional serum antibody responses to 4 strains in children aged 24-60 months. Among the 242 individuals, we estimated a variable seasonal attack rate and found that most children had ≥1 infection before 2 years of age. Our results are consistent with previously published high attack rates in children. The modeling approach highlights how cross-sectional serological data can be used to estimate epidemiological dynamics.