Seedat, Shaheen; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Ayoub, Houssein; Makhoul, Monia; Mumtaz, Ghina R; Kanaani, Zaina Al; Khal, Abdullatif Al; Kuwari, Einas Al; Butt, Adeel A; Coyle, Peter; +10 more... Jeremijenko, Andrew; Kaleeckal, Anvar Hassan; Latif, Ali Nizar; Shaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad; Yassine, Hadi M; Al Kuwari, Mohamed G; Al Romaihi, Hamad Eid; Al-Thani, Mohamed H; Bertollini, Roberto; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; (2020) SARS-CoV-2 infection hospitalization, severity, criticality, and fatality rates. MedRxiv. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.29.20240416
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Abstract
Abstract Background This study aimed to estimate the age-stratified and overall morbidity and mortality rates of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection based on an analysis of the pervasive SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Qatar, a country with <9% of the population being ≥50 years of age. Methods Infection disease outcomes were investigated using a Bayesian approach applied to an age-structured mathematical model describing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and disease progression in the population. The model was fitted to infection and disease time-series and age-stratified data. Two separate criteria for classifying morbidity were used: one based on actual recorded hospital admission (acute-care or intensive-care-unit hospitalization) and one based on clinical presentation as per World Health Organization classification of disease severity or criticality. Results All outcomes showed very strong age dependence, with low values for those <50 years of age, but rapidly growing rates for those ≥50 years of age. The strong age dependence was particularly pronounced for infection criticality rate and infection fatality rate. Infection acute-care and intensive-care-unit bed hospitalization rates were estimated at 13.10 (95% CI: 12.82-13.24) and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.58-1.61) per 1,000 infections, respectively. Infection severity and criticality rates were estimated at 3.06 (95% CI: 3.01-3.10) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.67-0.68) per 1,000 infections, respectively. Infection fatality rate was estimated at 1.85 (95% CI: 1.74-1.95) per 10,000 infections. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 severity and fatality in Qatar was not high and demonstrated a very strong age dependence with <4 infections in every 1,000 being severe or critical and <2 in every 10,000 being fatal. Epidemic expansion in nations with young populations may lead to lower disease burden than previously thought.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) |
Research Centre | Covid-19 Research |
Elements ID | 154311 |
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Filename: 2020.11.29.20240416v1.full.pdf
Licence: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0
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