Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
; Claro, IM; de Jesus, JG; Souza, WM; Moreira, FR; Dellicour, S; Mellan, TA; du Plessis, L; Pereira, RH; Sales, FC; +69 more...Manuli, ER; Thézé, J; Almeida, L; Menezes, MT; Voloch, CM; Fumagalli, MJ; Coletti, TM; da Silva, CA; Ramundo, MS; Amorim, MR; Hoeltgebaum, HH; Mishra, S; Gill, MS; Carvalho, LM; Buss, LF; Prete, CA; Ashworth, J; Nakaya, HI; Peixoto, PS; Brady, OJ; Nicholls, SM; Tanuri, A; Rossi, ÁD; Braga, CK; Gerber, AL; de C Guimarães, AP; Gaburo, N; Alencar, CS; Ferreira, AC; Lima, CX; Levi, JE; Granato, C; Ferreira, GM; Francisco, RS; Granja, F; Garcia, MT; Moretti, ML; Perroud, MW; Castiñeiras, TM; Lazari, CS; Hill, SC; de Souza Santos, AA; Simeoni, CL; Forato, J; Sposito, AC; Schreiber, AZ; Santos, MN; de Sá, CZ; Souza, RP; Resende-Moreira, LC; Teixeira, MM; Hubner, J; Leme, PA; Moreira, RG; Nogueira, ML; Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics an; Ferguson, NM; Costa, SF; Proenca-Modena, JL; Vasconcelos, ATR; Bhatt, S; Lemey, P; Wu, C; Rambaut, A; Loman, NJ; Aguiar, RS; Pybus, OG; Sabino, EC; Faria, NR and
(2020)
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
Science, 369 (6508).
pp. 1255-1260.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abd2161
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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