Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
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Ingra M
Claro
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Jaqueline G
de Jesus
;
William M
Souza
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Filipe RR
Moreira
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Simon
Dellicour
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Thomas A
Mellan
;
Louis
du Plessis
;
Rafael HM
Pereira
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Flavia CS
Sales
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+69 more...
Erika R
Manuli
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Julien
Thézé
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Luiz
Almeida
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Mariane T
Menezes
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Carolina M
Voloch
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Marcilio J
Fumagalli
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Thaís M
Coletti
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Camila AM
da Silva
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Mariana S
Ramundo
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Mariene R
Amorim
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Henrique H
Hoeltgebaum
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Swapnil
Mishra
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Mandev S
Gill
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Luiz M
Carvalho
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Lewis F
Buss
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Carlos A
Prete
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Jordan
Ashworth
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Helder I
Nakaya
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Pedro S
Peixoto
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Oliver J
Brady
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Samuel M
Nicholls
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Amilcar
Tanuri
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Átila D
Rossi
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Carlos KV
Braga
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Alexandra L
Gerber
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Ana Paula
de C Guimarães
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Nelson
Gaburo
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Cecila Salete
Alencar
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Alessandro CS
Ferreira
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Cristiano X
Lima
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José Eduardo
Levi
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Celso
Granato
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Giulia M
Ferreira
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Ronaldo S
Francisco
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Fabiana
Granja
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Marcia T
Garcia
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Maria Luiza
Moretti
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Mauricio W
Perroud
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Terezinha MPP
Castiñeiras
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Carolina S
Lazari
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Sarah C
Hill
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Andreza Aruska
de Souza Santos
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Camila L
Simeoni
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Julia
Forato
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Andrei C
Sposito
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Angelica Z
Schreiber
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Magnun NN
Santos
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Camila Zolini
de Sá
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Renan P
Souza
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Luciana C
Resende-Moreira
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Mauro M
Teixeira
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Josy
Hubner
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Patricia AF
Leme
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Rennan G
Moreira
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Maurício L
Nogueira
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Brazil-UK Centre for Arbovirus Discovery, Diagnosis, Genomics an
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Neil M
Ferguson
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Silvia F
Costa
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José Luiz
Proenca-Modena
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Ana Tereza R
Vasconcelos
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Samir
Bhatt
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Philippe
Lemey
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Chieh-Hsi
Wu
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Andrew
Rambaut
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Nick J
Loman
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Renato S
Aguiar
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Oliver G
Pybus
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Ester C
Sabino
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Nuno Rodrigues
Faria
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(2020)
Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
Science, 369 (6508).
pp. 1255-1260.
ISSN 0036-8075
DOI: 10.1126/science.abd2161
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
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