Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.

Lo, YE; Mitchell, DMORCID logo; Gasparrini, AORCID logo; Vicedo-Cabrera, AMORCID logo; Ebi, KLORCID logo; Frumhoff, PCORCID logo; Millar, RJORCID logo; Roberts, WORCID logo; Sera, FORCID logo; Sparrow, SORCID logo; +2 more...Uhe, PORCID logo; Williams, G and (2019) Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities. Science Advances, 5 (6). eaau4373-. ISSN 2375-2548 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
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Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.

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