A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions.
Amaku, Marcos;
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra;
Armstrong, Margaret;
Massad, Eduardo;
(2018)
A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions.
Computational and mathematical methods in medicine, 2018.
6289681-.
ISSN 1748-670X
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/6289681
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We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%.