Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission.
Massad, Eduardo;
Behrens, Ronald H;
Burattini, Marcelo N;
Coutinho, Francisco AB;
(2010)
Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission.
Malaria journal, 8 (1).
296-.
ISSN 1475-2875
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-8-296
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BACKGROUND: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. RESULTS: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. CONCLUSIONS: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.