Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days.
Hajat, Shakoor;
Sheridan, Scott C;
Allen, Michael J;
Pascal, Mathilde;
Laaidi, Karine;
Yagouti, Abderrahmane;
Bickis, Ugis;
Tobias, Aurelio;
Bourque, Denis;
Armstrong, Ben G;
+1 more...Kosatsky, Tom;
(2010)
Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days.
American journal of public health, 100 (6).
pp. 1137-1144.
ISSN 0090-0036
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2009.169748
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OBJECTIVES: We compared the ability of several heat-health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. METHODS: Heat-health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature-mortality relationship, (3) temperature-humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. RESULTS: We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature-mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat-health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers.