Mehran, Roxana; Pocock, Stuart J; Nikolsky, Eugenia; Clayton, Tim; Dangas, George D; Kirtane, Ajay J; Parise, Helen; Fahy, Martin; Manoukian, Steven V; Feit, Frederick; +5 more... Ohman, Magnus E; Witzenbichler, Bernard; Guagliumi, Giulio; Lansky, Alexandra J; Stone, Gregg W; (2010) A risk score to predict bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndromes. Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 55 (23). pp. 2556-2566. ISSN 0735-1097 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacc.2009.09.076
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a practical risk score to predict the risk and implications of major bleeding in acute coronary syndromes (ACS). BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic complications have been strongly linked with subsequent mortality in patients with ACS. METHODS: A total of 17,421 patients with ACS (including non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction [MI], ST-segment elevation MI, and biomarker negative ACS) were studied in the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage strategY) and the HORIZONS-AMI (Harmonizing Outcomes with RevasculariZatiON and Stents in Acute Myocardial Infarction) trials. An integer risk score for major bleeding within 30 days was developed from a multivariable logistic regression model. RESULTS: Non-coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG)-related major bleeding within 30 days occurred in 744 patients (7.3%) and had 6 independent baseline predictors (female sex, advanced age, elevated serum creatinine and white blood cell count, anemia, non-ST-segment elevation MI, or ST-segment elevation MI) and 1 treatment-related variable (use of heparin + a glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitor rather than bivalirudin alone) (model c-statistic = 0.74). The integer risk score differentiated patients with a 30-day rate of non-CABG-related major bleeding ranging from 1% to over 40%. In a time-updated covariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression model, major bleeding was an independent predictor of a 3.2-fold increase in mortality. The link to mortality risk was strongest for non-CABG-related Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI)-defined major bleeding followed by non-TIMI major bleeding with or without blood transfusions, whereas isolated large hematomas and CABG-related bleeding were not significantly associated with subsequent mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ACS have marked variation in their risk of major bleeding. A simple risk score based on 6 baseline measures plus anticoagulation regimen identifies patients at increased risk for non-CABG-related bleeding and subsequent 1-year mortality, for whom appropriate treatment strategies can be implemented.
Item Type | Article |
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Keywords | bleeding, mortality, myocardial infarction, risk score, ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION, GLYCOPROTEIN IIB/IIIA INHIBITORS, STRATEGY, ACUITY TRIAL, ACUTE CATHETERIZATION, CLINICAL-OUTCOMES, RANDOMIZED-TRIAL, GLOBAL REGISTRY, ISCHEMIC EVENTS, UNSTABLE ANGINA, ELUTING STENT |
Faculty and Department | Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Medical Statistics |
Research Centre | Centre for Global Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) |
PubMed ID | 20513595 |
ISI | 278222800005 |