Millett, Elizabeth RC; De Stavola, Bianca L; Quint, Jennifer K; Smeeth, Liam; Thomas, Sara L; (2015) Risk factors for hospital admission in the 28 days following a community-acquired pneumonia diagnosis in older adults, and their contribution to increasing hospitalisation rates over time: a cohort study. BMJ open, 5 (12). e008737-. ISSN 2044-6055 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008737
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Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To determine factors associated with hospitalisation after community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) among older adults in England, and to investigate how these factors have contributed to increasing hospitalisations over time. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Primary and secondary care in England. POPULATION: 39,211 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, who were eligible for linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, were aged ≥ 65 and had at least 1 CAP episode between April 1998 and March 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The association between hospitalisation within 28 days of CAP diagnosis (a 'post-CAP' hospitalisation) and a wide range of comorbidities, frailty factors, medications and vaccinations. We examined the role of these factors in post-CAP hospitalisation trends. We also looked at trends in post-CAP mortality and length of hospitalisation over the study period. RESULTS: 14 comorbidities, 5 frailty factors and 4 medications/vaccinations were associated with hospitalisation (of 18, 12 and 7 considered, respectively). Factors such as chronic lung disease, severe renal disease and diabetes were associated with increased likelihood of hospitalisation, whereas factors such as recent influenza vaccination and a recent antibiotic prescription decreased the odds of hospitalisation. Despite adjusting for these and other factors, the average predicted probability of hospitalisation after CAP rose markedly from 57% (1998-2000) to 86% (2009-2010). Duration of hospitalisation and 28-day mortality decreased over the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors we describe enable identification of patients at increased likelihood of post-CAP hospitalisation and thus in need of proactive case management. Our analyses also provide evidence that while comorbidities and frailty factors contributed to increasing post-CAP hospitalisations in recent years, the trend appears to be largely driven by changes in service provision and patient behaviour.
Item Type | Article |
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Faculty and Department |
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (-2023) Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology Academic Services & Administration > Directorate |
Research Centre | EHR Research Group |
PubMed ID | 26631055 |
ISI | 368839100049 |
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