Hartemink, Nienke; Vanwambeke, Sophie O; Heesterbeek, Hans; Rogers, David; Morley, David; Pesson, Bernard; Davies, Clive; Mahamdallie, Shazia; Ready, Paul; (2011) Integrated mapping of establishment risk for emerging vector-borne infections: a case study of canine leishmaniasis in southwest France. PloS one, 6 (8). e20817-. ISSN 1932-6203 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0020817
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis is endemic in the Mediterranean Basin, where the dog is the main reservoir host. The disease's causative agent, Leishmania infantum, is transmitted by blood-feeding female sandflies. This paper reports an integrative study of canine leishmaniasis in a region of France spanning the southwest Massif Central and the northeast Pyrenees, where the vectors are the sandflies Phlebotomus ariasi and P. perniciosus. METHODS: Sandflies were sampled in 2005 using sticky traps placed uniformly over an area of approximately 100 by 150 km. High- and low-resolution satellite data for the area were combined to construct a model of the sandfly data, which was then used to predict sandfly abundance throughout the area on a pixel by pixel basis (resolution of c. 1 km). Using literature- and expert-derived estimates of other variables and parameters, a spatially explicit R(0) map for leishmaniasis was constructed within a Geographical Information System. R(0) is a measure of the risk of establishment of a disease in an area, and it also correlates with the amount of control needed to stop transmission. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first analysis that combines a vector abundance prediction model, based on remotely-sensed variables measured at different levels of spatial resolution, with a fully mechanistic process-based temperature-dependent R(0) model. The resulting maps should be considered as proofs-of-principle rather than as ready-to-use risk maps, since validation is currently not possible. The described approach, based on integrating several modeling methods, provides a useful new set of tools for the study of the risk of outbreaks of vector-borne diseases.
Item Type | Article |
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Keywords | phlebotomus-perniciosus diptera, basic reproduction number, sand flies, ariasi tonnoir, transmission, infantum, epidemiology, diseases, ecology, spain, garigal k, 2002, rman rt, 1995, kken w, 2007, amaille l, 1000, v3, p31 |
Faculty and Department | Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control |
Research Centre | Leishmaniasis Group |
PubMed ID | 21857899 |
ISI | 293774300001 |
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