An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales.
De Angelis, D;
Sweeting, M;
Ades, Ae;
Hickman, M;
Hope, V;
Ramsay, M;
(2008)
An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales.
Statistical methods in medical research, 18 (4).
pp. 361-379.
ISSN 0962-2802
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0962280208094691
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In England and Wales, routine monitoring has been consistently showing an increase in mortality and morbidity due to infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV). However, the magnitude of the underlying epidemic is still the subject of debate. In this paper we present estimates of the number of individuals aged 15-59 chronically infected with HCV in 2003, derived from a Bayesian synthesis of information available from multiple sources on the size of the groups at risk for HCV and the risk specific anti-HCV prevalence. Results show that the number of chronic infections is of the order of 142,000 (95% CrI: 90,000, 231,000), with the majority (85%, 95% CrI: 74%, 93%) in injecting drug users and about 80% (95% CrI: 74%, 84%) in the age group 15-44.
