Distinguishing the impact of postponement, spacing and stopping on birth intervals: Evidence from a model with heterogeneous fecundity


Timæus, IM; Moultrie, TA; (2012) Distinguishing the impact of postponement, spacing and stopping on birth intervals: Evidence from a model with heterogeneous fecundity. Journal of biosocial science, 45 (3). pp. 311-30. ISSN 0021-9320 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932012000648

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Abstract

: Summary This paper investigates the impact on birth intervals of three distinct birth control strategies: stopping childbearing, spacing births and the postponement of further childbearing for reasons unrelated to women's family-building histories. A macro-simulation model of the family-building process is described that incorporates heterogeneity in fecundability. This model is used to demonstrate that the postponement of further childbearing has a distinctive impact on schedules of duration-specific fertility rates that differs from that of both family-size limitation and birth spacing. In particular, the simulation results, supplemented by an analytical exposition, show that reductions in fertility due to spacing are a function of interval duration and its log, while reductions due to postponement are a function of interval duration and its square. This provides a way to test statistically for the presence of, and distinguish between, differential postponement and spacing in regression analyses of birth history data.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Population Health (2012- ) > Dept of Population Studies (1974-2012)
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Population Health (2012- )
Research Centre: Population Studies Group
PubMed ID: 23192103
Web of Science ID: 316815300002
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/967511

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