Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza

Lee, VJ; Chen, MI; (2007) Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza. Emerging infectious diseases, 13 (3). pp. 449-57. ISSN 1080-6040

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We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks' prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R0, peak absenteeism exceeded 20% occasionally and 6 weeks' prophylaxis reduced peak absenteeism by 75%. Insufficient duration of prophylaxis increased peak absenteeism compared with treatment only. Earlier pandemic detection and initiation of prophylaxis may render shorter prophylaxis durations ineffective. Eight weeks' prophylaxis substantially reduced peak absenteeism under a broad range of assumptions for severe pandemics (peak absenteeism > 10%). Small investments in treatment and prophylaxis, if adequate and timely, can reduce absenteeism among essential staff.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: *Absenteeism, Adult, *Disease Outbreaks, Disease Transmission, Horizontal/prevention & control, Enzyme Inhibitors/*administration & dosage, *Health Personnel, Humans, Influenza, Human/*prevention & control/transmission, Middle Aged, *Models, Theoretical, Oseltamivir/*administration & dosage, Singapore/epidemiology, Absenteeism, Adult, Disease Outbreaks, Disease Transmission, Horizontal, prevention & control, Enzyme Inhibitors, administration & dosage, Health Personnel, Humans, Influenza, Human, prevention & control, transmission, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Oseltamivir, administration & dosage, Singapore, epidemiology
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
PubMed ID: 17552099
Web of Science ID: 244800900012
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/8683


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