Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: An application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005


Moultrie, TA; Hosegood, V; McGrath, N; Hill, C; Herbst, K; Newell, ML; (2008) Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: An application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005. Studies in family planning, 39 (1). pp. 39-48. ISSN 0039-3665 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00149.x

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Abstract

Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Population Health (2012- ) > Dept of Population Studies (1974-2012)
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Population Health (2012- )
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Centre for Maternal, Reproductive and Child Health (MARCH)
PubMed ID: 18540522
Web of Science ID: 253638300003
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/7971

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