Estimating the impact of childhood influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales


Vynnycky, E; Pitman, R; Siddiqui, R; Gay, N; Edmunds, WJ; (2008) Estimating the impact of childhood influenza vaccination programmes in England and Wales. Vaccine, 26 (41). pp. 5328-37. ISSN 0264-410X DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2008.06.101

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Abstract

There is increasing interest in routine vaccination of children against influenza. We use an age-structured model to demonstrate that the long-term incidence of influenza A could decrease by 11-21% in the overall population by vaccinating individuals aged 6 to <24 months, and by 22-38% and 65-97% through targeting those aged 6 to <60 months and 6 months to 16 years, respectively. The corresponding reductions predicted for influenza B were 25-35%, 44-69% and 85-96%, respectively. These results are sensitive to assumptions about contact patterns and several parameters, including the vaccine efficacy among those aged <24 months, require further study. Consistently high levels of vaccination coverage among pre-school children has the potential to bring benefits to both those vaccinated and the community.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Vaccine Centre
PubMed ID: 18647634
Web of Science ID: 260148900014
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/6835

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