Assessing the contribution of fibrinogen in predicting risk of death in men with peripheral arterial disease.


Bartlett, JW; De Stavola, BL; Meade, TW; (2008) Assessing the contribution of fibrinogen in predicting risk of death in men with peripheral arterial disease. Journal of thrombosis and haemostasis, 7 (2). pp. 270-6. ISSN 1538-7933 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-7836.2008.03236.x

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although fibrinogen is known to be an independent population-level risk factor for cardiovascular disease in healthy individuals, less is known about its value for individual-level risk prediction. OBJECTIVES: To assess the independent contribution of plasma fibrinogen to risk prediction in men with peripheral arterial disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We used data from the 785 men randomized to placebo in the Lower Extremity Arterial Disease Event Reduction (LEADER) trial. Men were followed at 6-monthly intervals up to 3 years, during which 116 patients died. Multivariable standard and pooled logistic regression were used to model odds of death in the next 3 years or in a 6-month interval. The c-statistic and predictiveness curves were used to assess improvement in predictive ability. RESULTS: Fibrinogen measured at baseline was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality risk (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.94, for a 1 g L(-1) increase). Adding baseline fibrinogen to a set of other risk factors did not, however, substantially improve predictive ability. Similarly, fibrinogen measured at the start of a 6-month interval was independently associated with odds of death in the next 6 months (adjusted OR 1.65; 95% CI 0.96-2.73). Again, predictiveness curves with and without fibrinogen did not substantially differ, although the c-statistic increased by 0.011. CONCLUSIONS: Although fibrinogen was independently associated with both 6-month and 3-year mortality risk, individual-level risk prediction was not substantially improved by including fibrinogen in risk models.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Medical Statistics
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Centre for Global Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
PubMed ID: 19036067
Web of Science ID: 262782300005
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/6556

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