Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.
Lo, YT Eunice;
Mitchell, Daniel M;
Gasparrini, Antonio;
Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M;
Ebi, Kristie L;
Frumhoff, Peter C;
Millar, Richard J;
Roberts, William;
Sera, Francesco;
Sparrow, Sarah;
+2 more...Uhe, Peter;
Williams, Gethin;
(2019)
Increasing mitigation ambition to meet the Paris Agreement's temperature goal avoids substantial heat-related mortality in U.S. cities.
Science Advances, 5 (6).
eaau4373-.
ISSN 2375-2548
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau4373
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Current greenhouse gas mitigation ambition is consistent with ~3°C global mean warming above preindustrial levels. There is a clear need to strengthen mitigation ambition to stabilize the climate at the Paris Agreement goal of warming of less than 2°C. We specify the differences in city-level heat-related mortality between the 3°C trajectory and warming of 2° and 1.5°C. Focusing on 15 U.S. cities where reliable climate and health data are available, we show that ratcheting up mitigation ambition to achieve the 2°C threshold could avoid between 70 and 1980 annual heat-related deaths per city during extreme events (30-year return period). Achieving the 1.5°C threshold could avoid between 110 and 2720 annual heat-related deaths. Population changes and adaptation investments would alter these numbers. Our results provide compelling evidence for the heat-related health benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5°C in the United States.