Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1.

Fitzgerald, Felicity; Wing, Kevin; Naveed, Asad; Gbessay, Musa; Ross, JCG; Checchi, Francesco; Youkee, Daniel; Jalloh, Mohamed Boie; Baion, David E; Mustapha, Ayeshatu; +11 more... Jah, Hawanatu; Lako, Sandra; Oza, Shefali; Boufkhed, Sabah; Feury, Reynold; Bielicki, Julia; Williamson, Elizabeth; Gibb, Diana M; Klein, Nigel; Sahr, Foday; Yeung, Shunmay; (2018) Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1. Emerging infectious diseases, 24 (2). pp. 311-319. ISSN 1080-6040 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018

Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

Additional Information

Item Type	Article
Faculty and Department	Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology ?? PHHP ?? Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Health Services Research and Policy Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Medical Statistics Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Clinical Research
Research Centre	EHR Research Group Centre for Maternal, Reproductive and Child Health (MARCH)
PubMed ID	29350145
ISI	423966800015
Related URLs	OA Location