Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy: development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors.


Pasea, L; Chung, SC; Pujades-Rodriguez, M; Moayyeri, A; Denaxas, S; Fox, KA; Wallentin, L; Pocock, SJ; Timmis, A; Banerjee, A; Patel, R; Hemingway, H; (2017) Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy: development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors. European heart journal. ISSN 0195-668X DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehw683

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) that requires balancing an individual patient's potential benefits and harms. Using population-based electronic health records (EHRs) (CALIBER, England, 2000-10), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute myocardial infarction (MI), we developed (n = 12 694 patients) and validated (n = 5613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) events and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and the net clinical benefit of individuals. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in the lowest- and 46.7% in the highest-risk individuals), while for major bleeding, it was 1.7% (0.3% in the lowest- and 5.4% in the highest-risk patients). For every 10 000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87, 181) major bleeding events caused in the highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in the lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63-99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based EHRs may help to personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1-year following acute MI.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Medical Statistics
Research Centre: Centre for Statistical Methodology
PubMed ID: 28329300
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/3682760

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