Probabilistic Cause-of-death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies.


McCormick, TH; Li, ZR; Calvert, C; Crampin, AC; Kahn, K; Clark, SJ; (2016) Probabilistic Cause-of-death Assignment using Verbal Autopsies. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 111 (515). pp. 1036-1049. ISSN 0162-1459 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2016.1152191

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Abstract

: In regions without complete-coverage civil registration and vital statistics systems there is uncertainty about even the most basic demographic indicators. In such regions the majority of deaths occur outside hospitals and are not recorded. Worldwide, fewer than one-third of deaths are assigned a cause, with the least information available from the most impoverished nations. In populations like this, verbal autopsy (VA) is a commonly used tool to assess cause of death and estimate cause-specific mortality rates and the distribution of deaths by cause. VA uses an interview with caregivers of the decedent to elicit data describing the signs and symptoms leading up to the death. This paper develops a new statistical tool known as InSilicoVA to classify cause of death using information acquired through VA. InSilicoVA shares uncertainty between cause of death assignments for specific individuals and the distribution of deaths by cause across the population. Using side-by-side comparisons with both observed and simulated data, we demonstrate that InSilicoVA has distinct advantages compared to currently available methods.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Population Health (2012- )
Research Centre: Maternal Health Group
PubMed ID: 27990036
Web of Science ID: 386318200011
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/3262465

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