Changes in Susceptibility to Heat During the Summer: A Multicountry Analysis.


Gasparrini, A; Guo, Y; Hashizume, M; Lavigne, E; Tobias, A; Zanobetti, A; Schwartz, JD; Leone, M; Michelozzi, P; Kan, H; Tong, S; Honda, Y; Kim, H; Armstrong, BG; (2016) Changes in Susceptibility to Heat During the Summer: A Multicountry Analysis. American journal of epidemiology, 183 (11). pp. 1027-36. ISSN 0002-9262 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv260

[img]
Preview
Text - Published Version
License:

Download (781kB) | Preview
[img]
Preview
Text - Accepted Version
License:

Download (626kB) | Preview

Abstract

Few studies have examined the variation in mortality risk associated with heat during the summer. Here, we apply flexible statistical models to investigate the issue by using a large multicountry data set. We collected daily time-series data of temperature and mortality from 305 locations in 9 countries, in the period 1985-2012. We first estimated the heat-mortality relationship in each location with time-varying distributed lag non-linear models, using a bivariate spline to model the exposure-lag-response over lag 0-10. Estimates were then pooled by country through multivariate meta-analysis. Results provide strong evidence of a reduction in risk over the season. Relative risks for the 99th percentile versus the minimum mortality temperature were in the range of 1.15-2.03 in early summer. In late summer, the excess was substantially reduced or abated, with relative risks in the range of 0.97-1.41 and indications of wider comfort ranges and higher minimum mortality temperatures. The attenuation is mainly due to shorter lag periods in late summer. In conclusion, this multicountry analysis suggests a reduction of heat-related mortality risk over the summer, which can be attributed to several factors, such as true acclimatization, adaptive behaviors, or harvesting effects. These findings may have implications on public health policies and climate change health impact projections.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Social and Environmental Health Research
PubMed ID: 27188948
Web of Science ID: 377417600008
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2551632

Statistics


Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads since deposit
41Downloads
47Hits
Accesses by country - last 12 months
Accesses by referrer - last 12 months
Impact and interest
Additional statistics for this record are available via IRStats2

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item