A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease


Graesboll, K; Sumner, T; Enoe, C; Christiansen, LE; Gubbins, S; (2014) A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease. Transboundary and emerging diseases, 63 (2). pp. 215-223. ISSN 1865-1674 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.12249

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Abstract

In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
TB Centre
PubMed ID: 25056842
Web of Science ID: 371720900027
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2551472

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