Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study.

Guo, Y; Gasparrini, A; Armstrong, BG; Tawatsupa, B; Tobias, A; Lavigne, E; Coelho, MS; Pan, X; Kim, H; Hashizume, M; Honda, Y; Guo, YL; Wu, CF; Zanobetti, A; Schwartz, JD; Bell, ML; Overcenco, A; Punnasiri, K; Li, S; Tian, L; Saldiva, P; Williams, G; Tong, S; (2016) Temperature Variability and Mortality: A Multi-Country Study. Environmental health perspectives. ISSN 0091-6765 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP149

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BACKGROUND: The evidence and method are limited for the associations between mortality and temperature variability (TV) within or between days.<br/> OBJECTIVES: To develop a novel method to calculate TV, and to investigate the TV-mortality associations using a large multi-country dataset.<br/> METHODS: We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 372 locations in 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, Moldova, South Korea, Spain, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA). We calculated TV by standard deviation of minimum and maximum temperatures during the exposure days. Two-stage analyses were used to assess the relation between TV and mortality. Firstly, a Poisson regression model allowing over-dispersion was used to estimate the community-specific TV-mortality relation, after controlling for potential confounders. In the second stage, a meta-analysis was used to pool the effect estimates within each country.<br/> RESULTS: There was a significant association between TV and mortality in all countries, even after controlling for the effects of daily mean temperature. In stratified analyses, TV was still significantly associated with mortality in cold, hot, and moderate seasons. Mortality risks related to TV were higher in hot areas than cold areas when using short TV exposure (0-1 days), while TV-related mortality risks were higher in moderate areas than cold and hot areas when using longer TV exposure days (0-7 days).<br/> CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate that more attention should be paid to unstable weather conditions in order to protect health. These findings may have implications for developing public health policies for managing health risks of climate change.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Social and Environmental Health Research
Research Centre: Centre for Statistical Methodology
PubMed ID: 27258598
Web of Science ID: 384334400018
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2550474


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