Pandemic Influenza and Health System Resource Gaps in Bali: An Analysis Through a Resource Transmission Dynamics Model.


Adisasmito, W; Hunter, BM; Krumkamp, R; Latief, K; Rudge, JW; Hanvoravongchai, P; Coker, RJ; (2011) Pandemic Influenza and Health System Resource Gaps in Bali: An Analysis Through a Resource Transmission Dynamics Model. Asia-Pacific journal of public health / Asia-Pacific Academic Consortium for Public Health. ISSN 1010-5395 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1010539511421365

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Abstract

: The failure to contain pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Mexico has shifted global attention from containment to mitigation. Limited surveillance and reporting have, however, prevented detailed assessment of mitigation during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To assess pandemic influenza case management capabilities in a resource-limited setting, the authors used a health system questionnaire and density-dependent, deterministic transmission model for Bali, Indonesia, determining resource gaps. The majority of health resources were focused in and around the provincial capital, Denpasar; however, gaps are found in every district for nursing staff, surgical masks, and N95 masks. A relatively low pathogenicity pandemic influenza virus would see an overall surplus for physicians, antivirals, and antimicrobials; however, a more pathogenic virus would lead to gaps in every resource except antimicrobials. Resources could be allocated more evenly across Bali. These, however, are in short supply universally and therefore redistribution would not fill resource gaps.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development
PubMed ID: 22087040
Web of Science ID: 352586200071
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/25457

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