Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone.


Kucharski, AJ; Camacho, A; Flasche, S; Glover, RE; Edmunds, WJ; Funk, S; (2015) Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112 (46). pp. 14366-71. ISSN 0027-8424 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1508814112

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Abstract

: Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300-84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014-2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.<br/>

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Health Services Research and Policy
Research Centre: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID: 26460023
Web of Science ID: 365170400073
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2331668

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