Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.


Checchi, F; Funk, S; Chandramohan, D; Haydon, DT; Chappuis, F; (2015) Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis. BMC research notes, 8 (1). p. 292. ISSN 1756-0500 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-015-1244-3

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Abstract

The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy. The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171-399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months. Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control
Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases
PubMed ID: 26140922
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2228532

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