Potential effect of virus interference on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates in test-negative designs.


Suzuki, M; Camacho, A; Ariyoshi, K; (2014) Potential effect of virus interference on influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates in test-negative designs. Epidemiology and infection, 142 (12). pp. 2642-2646. ISSN 0950-2688 DOI: 10.1017/S0950268814000107

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Abstract

SUMMARY A hypothetical influenza infection-induced non-specific immunity may reduce the risk of subsequent non-influenza respiratory virus (NIRV) infection and bias the influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates in test-negative designs (TNDs). We conducted a simulation study using a simple TND model and explored the degree of bias in the VE estimates. The bias was marginal during the usual seasons and most of the time during pandemics; the bias only became large when the influenza infection attack rate increased to pandemic levels (>50%), the true VE was low to moderate, and the non-specific immunity almost completely protected from NIRV infections and lasted at least half the influenza season.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
PubMed ID: 25372226
Web of Science ID: 344920800021
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/2019600

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