Estimating mortality displacement during and after heat waves.

Armstrong, B; Gasparrini, A; Hajat, S; (2014) Estimating mortality displacement during and after heat waves. American journal of epidemiology, 179 (12). pp. 1405-6. ISSN 0002-9262 DOI:

Full text not available from this repository. (Request a copy)


The proportion of excess deaths occurring as a result of hot weather that are brought forward by only a short time ("displaced") is important but not easy to estimate. A recent proposal by Saha et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(4):467-474) was to estimate this using a "displacement ratio" equal to the sum of deficits of daily deaths below an expected baseline divided by the sum of excesses over all days during and up to 15 days after a heat wave. Unfortunately, this method results in important artifacts due to natural Poisson variation in deaths by which deficits, and hence displacement ratios above zero, will occur even when there is no real short-term displacement. Simulations confirm this and further show spurious patterns, such as the displacement ratio diminishing with more severe waves. This displacement ratio cannot be relied upon for interpretation. Quantifying mortality displacement remains an incompletely resolved problem.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Social and Environmental Health Research
Research Centre: Centre for Statistical Methodology
PubMed ID: 24812157
Web of Science ID: 338106100001


Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads since deposit
Accesses by country - last 12 months
Accesses by referrer - last 12 months
Impact and interest
Additional statistics for this record are available via IRStats2

Actions (login required)

Edit Item Edit Item