EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research


Jacob, D; Petersen, J; Eggert, B; Alias, A; Christensen, OB; Bouwer, LM; Braun, A; Colette, A; Deque, M; Georgievski, G; Georgopoulou, E; Gobiet, A; Menut, L; Nikulin, G; Haensler, A; Hempelmann, N; Jones, C; Keuler, K; Kovats, S; Kroener, N; Kotlarski, S; Kriegsmann, A; Martin, E; van Meijgaard, E; Moseley, C; Pfeifer, S; Preuschmann, S; Radermacher, C; Radtke, K; Rechid, D; Rounsevell, M; Samuelsson, P; Somot, S; Soussana, J.-, F; Teichmann, C; Valentini, R; Vautard, R; Weber, B; Yiou, P; (2014) EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional environmental change, 14 (2). pp. 563-578. ISSN 1436-3798 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

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Abstract

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Social and Environmental Health Research
Web of Science ID: 333267700011
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/1726214

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