An ecologic study of geographical variation in multiple sclerosis risk in central Sardinia, Italy.


Montomoli, C; Allemani, C; Solinas, G; Motta, G; Bernardinelli, L; Clemente, S; Murgia, BS; Ticca, AF; Musu, L; Piras, ML; Ferrai, R; Caria, A; Sanna, S; Porcu, O; (2002) An ecologic study of geographical variation in multiple sclerosis risk in central Sardinia, Italy. Neuroepidemiology, 21 (4). pp. 187-93. ISSN 0251-5350 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1159/000059522

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Abstract

: We carried out an ecological study in the most archaic area of Sardinia to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and to investigate the geographical variation in the prevalence across the 100 administrative communes. To estimate the area-specific prevalence rate, we adopted a Bayesian approach that makes it possible to filter out the random variation from the estimates and to obtain a map that reflects the true geographical variation in MS prevalence. 428 resident cases were identified by the case register, including 69 multiplex families. The overall prevalence was 157 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Bayesian area-specific prevalence ranged from 143 to 262/100,000. The high prevalence and its moderate geographical variation in a genetically homogeneous population, as well as the high number of multiplex families observed in the communes with the highest prevalence, could be interpreted as representing a high susceptibility of the population to MS.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Non-Communicable Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Cancer Survival Group
PubMed ID: 12065881
Web of Science ID: 176571600004
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/123319

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