Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a delphi survey.


Lubell, Y; Staedke, SG; Greenwood, BM; Kamya, MR; Molyneux, M; Newton, PN; Reyburn, H; Snow, RW; D'Alessandro, U; English, M; Day, N; Kremsner, P; Dondorp, A; Mbacham, W; Dorsey, G; Owusu-Agyei, S; Maitland, K; Krishna, S; Newton, C; Pasvol, G; Taylor, T; von Seidlein, L; White, NJ; Binka, F; Mills, A; Whitty, CJ; (2011) Likely health outcomes for untreated acute febrile illness in the tropics in decision and economic models; a delphi survey. PLoS One, 6 (2). e17439. ISSN 1932-6203 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017439

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Abstract

Modelling is widely used to inform decisions about management of malaria and acute febrile illnesses. Most models depend on estimates of the probability that untreated patients with malaria or bacterial illnesses will progress to severe disease or death. However, data on these key parameters are lacking and assumptions are frequently made based on expert opinion. Widely diverse opinions can lead to conflicting outcomes in models they inform.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Academic Services & Administration > Academic Administration
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Disease Control
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases > Dept of Clinical Research
Faculty of Public Health and Policy > Dept of Global Health and Development
Research Centre: Malaria Centre
ACT Consortium
PubMed ID: 21390277
Web of Science ID: 287761700057
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/1201

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