A note on parameter estimation for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic models.


Clarke, PS; Ghani, AC; (2006) A note on parameter estimation for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic models. Statistics in medicine, 26 (3). pp. 546-52. ISSN 0277-6715 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.2567

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Abstract

A recent series of papers has raised issues regarding estimation of the key epidemiological parameters of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) from fitting survival models to case data. In particular, it was stated that the scale of the epidemic cannot be estimated and must be fixed in any analysis. We show that this problem is an artefact of the approximate likelihood used in these papers to facilitate model-fitting, and is not a concern if estimation is based on the full likelihood. We also address comments in these papers regarding the choice of incubation period distribution. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
PubMed ID: 16612835
Web of Science ID: 243511400006
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/11959

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