Mortality impact of AIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.


Sanders, EJ; Araya, T; Kebede, D; Schaap, AJ; Nagelkerke, ND; Coutinho, RA; (2003) Mortality impact of AIDS in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AIDS (London, England), 17 (8). pp. 1209-16. ISSN 0269-9370 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1097/00002030-200305230-00013

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Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To measure the impact of HIV on mortality in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. DESIGN: A retrospective review of burials at three cemeteries, 1987-2001 and a prospective surveillance of burials at all (n = 70) cemeteries, February-May, 2001. METHODS: The age, sex, and date of burial were recorded; in the absence of denominators, we compared the ratio of deaths of persons 25-49 versus 5-14 years of age per calendar year, using logistic regression, adjusting for sex and site. The age- and sex- specific mortality were calculated and compared with pre-HIV mortality in 1984. RESULTS: Of 17,519 deaths, retrospectively reviewed, complete data were available for 6342 (47%) females and 7269 (53%) males. During 1987-2001, the '25-49' versus '5-14' group all-cause mortality ratio increased by 8.5% per calendar year (P < 0.05). A total of 5101 deaths were recorded in the prospective surveillance. Crude mortality rates were 9.5/1000 per year (men) and 7.1/1000 per year (women). In comparison with 1984, 5.0-times as many men and 5.3-times as many women died in the age group 35-39 years. Attributing the increase in mortality in ages 15-60 to HIV in the period 1984-2001, Ethiopian men and women have a probability of 18.8 and 17.8%, respectively, of dying of HIV before age 60. CONCLUSION: Burials increased significantly among the '25-49', versus the '5-14' group, during the period 1987-2001. This trend, and a five-times higher mortality in 2001 than in 1984 in those aged 35-39 years demonstrate a severe impact of HIV on mortality. Continuing surveillance of burials is recommended.

Item Type: Article
Faculty and Department: Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health > Dept of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
Research Centre: Tropical Epidemiology Group
PubMed ID: 12819523
Web of Science ID: 183408000013
URI: http://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/id/eprint/10759

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